By Ch Haroon Rashid | August 30, 2025
Rumors are swirling across YouTube vlogs and Google thumbnails that Afghanistan may have quietly handed over some of its airbases to India. No official statement has come from either Kabul or New Delhi yet, but the chatter is loud enough to spark serious debate. Could this be a geopolitical fox move by India to corner both Pakistan and China, and block progress on CPEC and the Belt and Road? Or is it simply a psychological tactic meant to keep its rivals guessing?
India’s Expanding Strategic Reach
India has been steadily building partnerships and acquiring cutting-edge weapons systems for over a decade. Its close defense cooperation with Israel has already given it access to advanced drones, missile defense systems, and battlefield surveillance capabilities.
➡️ Explore more: India–Israel Defence Alliance: How Tech Transfers Are Changing South Asia
The Afghan Angle: A Two-Front Dilemma for Pakistan
If these reports are accurate, India would gain an unprecedented strategic advantage by extending radar coverage deep into Pakistani territory from Afghan soil. For Pakistan, this raises tough questions:
- Should it divide air assets to guard both eastern and western borders, risking dilution of strength?
- Or should it invest in new bases and war machines to counter this looming threat?
This isn’t just about geography — it’s about shifting power dynamics in South Asia.
Psychological Warfare: India’s Information Strategy
India has a long record of using strategic leaks and high-profile defense announcements to create perception advantages. Whether or not Afghan bases are already operational, this rumor alone forces Pakistan to divert attention and resources.
➡️ Read more: India’s PsyWar Through S-500 and Fighter Jet Announcements
The S-500 and Beyond: India’s Long Game
Reports of India’s involvement with Russia’s S-500 missile system and development of a 5th-generation fighter jet highlight its ambitions to leap ahead technologically. Even if some of these plans remain aspirational, the psychological impact on Pakistan’s military calculus is very real.
➡️ Deep dive: India–Russia S-500 & Fighter Jet Cooperation: Strategic Implications
Red Teaming: Preparing for Future Wars
Indian generals have recently introduced Red Teaming, a modern war-planning technique used by the U.S. and Israel. This is designed to simulate conflicts and test weaknesses before war even begins. If these rumors of Afghan bases are true, they may well be part of a Red Team scenario to stress-test Pakistan’s defenses.
➡️ Learn more: Red Teaming — India vs Pakistan: A New Strategic Mindset
China’s Stake and the Battle for Influence
Afghanistan’s location has always made it a prize for regional powers. China has shown interest in areas like Batgram for its Belt and Road expansion. An Indian foothold in Afghanistan could be an effort to block Chinese access and limit CPEC’s potential.
➡️ Analysis: India–Israel vs Pakistan–China: Can Alliances Balance Power?
Lessons from the Rafale Ambush
The 2025 Rafale incident showed that superior tactics and missile systems can level the playing field. Pakistan’s J-10Cs, equipped with PL-15E missiles, proved decisive. But would Pakistan be able to repeat such success if India attacked from multiple fronts?
➡️ Read full analysis: The Rafale Ambush: India’s Air War Failures in 2025
What This Means for Pakistan
If India gains access to Afghan airbases, Pakistan will face the kind of two-front war scenario its generals have long warned about. This would require:
- New air defense infrastructure on the western border
- Revised CPEC protection plans
- Closer alignment with China and Iran for intelligence sharing
The region is shifting fast. The rumors may be unconfirmed, but the strategic questions they raise are very real.
🔹 Conclusion
South Asia has seen its share of rumors, but this one could redefine the game. If India really is gaining a foothold in Afghanistan, Pakistan will have to rethink everything — from air force distribution to alliance structures. Whether this is truth or tactical rumor, it’s a wake-up call.
