China is quietly building a massive dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, not far from the Indian border, in the high mountains of the eastern Himalayas, where clouds hang low and rivers cut deep through ancient valleys. This project has the potential to completely change the geopolitics of the region. The location of this dam presents issues that extend well beyond hydropower as the river turns into India’s Brahmaputra close to Arunachal Pradesh.
India sees strategic control, not just turbines and concrete. Authority over a river that sustains ecosystems, irrigates fields, provides for millions of people, and may now be used as a political pressure tool. This is more than just a Chinese development project for New Delhi. It could be a sneak peek at the use of water as a weapon.
1.What Exactly Is China Building Near the Indian Border?
A massive dam project near the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo was approved by China in 2021. Medog County in Tibet is dangerously close to the Line of Actual Control, as well as to territory that China claims to be “South Tibet,” but India governs as Arunachal Pradesh.
This isn’t just any dam. It may soon become the largest hydropower station in the world, three times larger than the famous Three Gorges Dam, with an anticipated output of 60 gigawatts. However, its position gives it strategic weight in addition to producing electricity. China gains the ability to influence the volume, timing, and flow of the river by building upstream, which India cannot afford to ignore.
2. India’s Alarming Concerns: More Than Just Water
a. Water as a Tool of Control
India’s biggest fear is that China, being upstream, could regulate the river flow releasing excess water during monsoons to trigger floods, or holding back water during dry spells. In Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, this kind of manipulation could have a significant impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.
b. Memories of the Past
This isn’t a baseless concern. Back in 2000, a dam burst in Tibet sent a wave of water crashing through Arunachal Pradesh, causing widespread damage. India never got prior warning. The fear now is that history might repeat itself intentionally or otherwise.
c. No Binding Water Treaty
Unlike the Indus Waters Treaty India shares with Pakistan, there is no water-sharing agreement with China. Beijing does share some hydrological data with India during the flood season, but this exchange has often been cut off during political tensions most notably during the 2017 Doklam standoff.
d. Threat to Ecosystems
The Brahmaputra isn’t just a river, it’s a source of life. Blocking or altering its flow can reduce sediment deposits, harm agriculture, disrupt fish migration, and hurt biodiversity in some of India’s most sensitive ecological zones.
e. Strategic Risk in Wartime
If tensions along the LAC were to escalate into conflict, China’s control over river flow could become a silent but devastating weapon. Imagine a flood disabling Indian bridges, roads, or military supply lines at a critical moment. The possibility is not far-fetched.
2. Is This China’s Answer to India’s Indus Strategy with Pakistan?
Some analysts believe that China’s actions are not just about electricity but also a diplomatic message to India.
For decades, India has held the upper hand over Pakistan on water matters under the Indus Waters Treaty. While legally compliant, India’s construction of dams and hydropower projects on rivers that flow into Pakistan has been a recurring source of friction. India has even hinted at “revisiting” the treaty during periods of heightened tension.
China could now be signaling: “If you can use your upper-riparian position with Pakistan, we can do the same with you.”
From Beijing’s point of view, it may seem like balance, not provocation. But to India, it feels more like escalation.
4. What India Could Do Now
a. Push for a Water Agreement
India must diplomatically engage China to negotiate at least a water-data sharing pact if not a full treaty. Without structured dialogue, India remains vulnerable to surprise decisions or unilateral actions.
b. Build Better Border Infrastructure
India needs to modernize its monitoring systems along the border, build buffer reservoirs, and strengthen flood management tools in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Early warning systems must be improved.
c. Collaborate with Downstream Nations
India isn’t alone in this. Bangladesh also relies on the Brahmaputra, and could be a valuable ally in international forums. Joint pressure through platforms like BIMSTEC or the UN could encourage China to behave responsibly.
d. Strengthen Domestic Water Resilience
Finally, India must reduce dependency on cross-border water by improving rainwater harvesting, watershed management, and local water conservation projects across the northeast and beyond.
Conclusion
This dam isn’t just a structure, it’s a symbol. A symbol of how natural resources are becoming tools of influence in a new kind of diplomacy. For India, it opens up another front along with border skirmishes, trade tensions, and tech rivalry where vigilance is no longer optional.
China’s megadam may bring light to its cities, but it also casts a long shadow over South Asia’s stability. If India wants to ensure that its rivers continue to nourish and not threaten, it must act with foresight, unity, and resolve.
