The resumption of direct flights between India and China has sparked debate in South Asia’s strategic circles. Is this purely an economic necessity triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on India, a diplomatic balancing act by Beijing, or an indirect signal to Pakistan at a time when Islamabad remains deeply aligned with China yet cautiously engaging the U.S.?
This development is not just about aviation—it’s a strategic recalibration with implications for Pakistan–China relations, CPEC, BRICS, SCO, and South Asia’s balance of power.
1. Why Have India–China Flights Been Restored?
After years of strained ties following the 2020 Ladakh border clash, New Delhi and Beijing have agreed to resume direct flights, reopen border trade routes, ease visas, and restart people-to-people exchanges. For India, this ensures access to Chinese markets and manufacturing supply chains. For China, it cements stability on its Himalayan frontier while diversifying trade partners amid global turbulence.
2. The Trump Tariff Factor
A major trigger is President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on Indian goods, which has unsettled New Delhi’s economic planners. India now sees China as an indispensable counterweight to avoid being boxed in by Washington’s unpredictable trade policies.
- India wants cheaper Chinese components and electronics to keep its industries competitive.
- China, facing U.S. hostility of its own, benefits from anchoring another Asian economic partner.
- Both sides are careful not to appear “aligned,” but tariffs have forced pragmatism over rivalry.
3. Beyond Trade: A Broader Diplomatic Reset
Flights are symbolic, but the real agenda is strategic signaling:
- Border Confidence-Building: While the Ladakh dispute remains unresolved, flights restoration is a confidence-building measure (CBM) to prevent escalation.
- Visa and Cultural Exchanges: Easier movement of students, business leaders, and religious pilgrims adds a human dimension to diplomacy.
- Multilateral Forums: Both nations are preparing for BRICS and SCO summits, where collaboration is unavoidable.
4. Is This a Message to Pakistan?
At first glance, the flights resumption is not aimed at Pakistan. However, the optics are worth noting:
- India may spin it as Beijing’s soft shift away from Pakistan.
- In reality, China is simply pursuing multi-vector diplomacy—strengthening India ties without weakening CPEC or its “iron brother” relationship with Pakistan.
- Still, this move reminds Islamabad that China values balance and won’t close off options with India.
5. Implications for Pakistan–China Relations
China’s Balancing Act
Beijing is showing flexibility: strengthening India ties while preserving Pakistan as a strategic partner.
CPEC & Connectivity
India–China trade normalization could shape South Asian corridors. Pakistan must ensure CPEC remains Beijing’s flagship project.
Psychological Warfare
Indian media may portray this as China “drifting,” pressuring Pakistan politically.
Public Perception in Pakistan
Islamabad must manage narratives so people see this as diplomacy, not betrayal.
Russia Factor
With India, China, and Russia close, Pakistan must guard against being sidelined in a Moscow–Delhi–Beijing axis.
6. BRICS and SCO Angle
- Both India and China are heavyweights in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Their thaw could:
- Strengthen economic coordination inside BRICS, challenging Western financial dominance.
- Make SCO forums more functional, where Pakistan is also a member.
- Increase opportunities for triangular trade—but also increase competition for Pakistan within Asian markets.
7. Strategic Calm for China
China’s broader aim may be to quiet its Indian frontier. With tensions in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and U.S. rivalry, Beijing cannot afford another hot border. By normalizing ties with New Delhi, China gains breathing room to prioritize CPEC, Central Asia, and maritime trade routes.
8. Psychological Warfare & Perception Battle
- In Pakistan: Some may interpret this as “China choosing India.” This is not the case, but perception management is critical.
- In India: The move is already being projected as a diplomatic win over Pakistan.
- Globally: The flights send a signal that Asia will not be dictated solely by U.S. tariffs or alliances.
Conclusion
The resumption of India–China flights is not just about aviation—it is a geopolitical signal with ripples across Asia. Triggered largely by Trump’s tariffs on India, this reset shows Beijing’s ability to balance rivals while keeping Pakistan close.
For Islamabad, the lesson is clear: China is pragmatic, not exclusive. While Pakistan remains central to China’s strategic calculus through CPEC and defense ties, Beijing will also engage India to safeguard its economic and diplomatic interests.
Ultimately, this is not a betrayal of Pakistan, but a reminder that in a multipolar world, partnerships are fluid, and flexibility is survival.
