A Silent but Significant Turn in Kabul’s Foreign Policy
Afghanistan’s recent diplomatic engagement with India, highlighted by the Taliban Trade Minister’s visit to New Delhi, signals one of the most important geopolitical shifts in the region. For decades, Pakistan served as Afghanistan’s primary gateway to global trade through its ports, highways, and markets. Today, Kabul’s political and economic direction is shifting in a way Pakistan cannot afford to overlook.
This warming relationship between Afghanistan and India represents more than symbolic diplomacy. It reflects a deeper rethinking in Kabul about regional partners, trade routes, and long-term strategic priorities. For Pakistan, the implications are serious and far-reaching.
Background
The Traditional Pakistan–Afghanistan Economic Axis
For almost fifty years, Pakistan and Afghanistan remained tightly connected through trade, geography, and people-to-people ties. Karachi Port managed most Afghan imports, while Torkham and Chaman served as critical trade arteries. Millions of Afghan refugees built networks across Pakistan, linking the two economies even further.
Over the past decade, however, this deep connection weakened due to inconsistent border policies, visa difficulties, anti-smuggling operations, political mistrust, and fluctuating trade regulations. As uncertainty increased, Afghanistan began diversifying its partnerships, giving India the opening it had long sought.
Why Afghanistan Is Moving Toward India
India’s Long-Term Investment Strategy
India has spent more than twenty years cultivating influence inside Afghanistan. It invested in roads, hospitals, dams, scholarships, training programs, and even built the Afghan Parliament building. This development-focused approach created a perception of long-term reliability.
Chabahar and the Route that Bypasses Pakistan
India’s cooperation with Iran through Chabahar Port has reshaped regional trade dynamics. It gives Afghanistan, for the first time, a sea route that bypasses Pakistan entirely. This increases Kabul’s confidence and reduces Pakistan’s traditional leverage.
Border Pressures and Afghanistan’s Need for Predictability
Frequent border closures, customs delays, and political tensions frustrated Afghan traders. India and Iran offer a more stable and predictable trade environment, even if the route is longer.
India’s Strategic Expansion on Pakistan’s Western Flank
India’s growing involvement in Afghanistan supports its broader regional strategy. A friendlier Kabul gives India diplomatic access, intelligence presence, and strategic depth, increasing pressure on Pakistan.
Implications for Pakistan
Reduced Economic Leverage
As Afghanistan turns toward India and Iran, Pakistan will lose significant economic influence. Border-dependent regions will feel the initial impact, but national-level consequences will follow.
Higher Food Prices in Pakistan
Pakistan relies heavily on Afghan fruits and vegetables such as tomatoes, onions, grapes, apples, pomegranates, apricots, and dried fruits. If Afghanistan redirects supplies toward India or through Iran, Pakistan will face:
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lower availability in markets
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higher prices for essential foods
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increased inflation pressure on households
Pakistan is already grappling with severe food inflation. Losing Afghan imports will intensify the crisis.
A Decline in Food Exports to Afghanistan
Afghanistan has long been a major buyer of Pakistani wheat, rice, maize, pulses, and flour. These exports give Pakistani farmers stable demand and pricing.
A shift toward Indian, Iranian, or Central Asian suppliers will have serious consequences.
Pakistan Loses a Major Buyer
Without Afghan demand, Pakistan will face surplus agricultural supply, reducing farmers’ bargaining power.
Domestic Prices Fall
If Afghan buyers disappear:
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grain and vegetable prices will drop
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profit margins will shrink
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farmers will struggle to meet fertilizer, fuel, and labor costs
This affects wheat growers in Punjab, rice farmers in Sindh, maize growers in KP, and vegetable producers across the country.
Rural Economic Stress Intensifies
Agriculture supports almost half of Pakistan’s workforce. Reduced farmer income leads to:
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lower rural consumption
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higher debt risks
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reduced agricultural investment
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wider national economic slowdown
This is not just a border issue. It threatens Pakistan’s economic core.
weakened Diplomatic Influence
Pakistan’s influence over Kabul has historically come from controlling major trade routes. As that dependency decreases, Islamabad will have less ability to shape Afghan decisions regarding border security and militant movement.
A Larger Indian Presence on the Western Border
A Kabul aligned more closely with New Delhi introduces new security challenges. India’s deeper footprint in Afghanistan affects intelligence dynamics and regional power equations.
Regional Trade Corridors Moving Away from Pakistan
If India strengthens links with Afghanistan and Central Asia through Chabahar and other routes, Pakistan risks being bypassed in future trade and energy corridors. In a region where connectivity defines relevance, being excluded is dangerous.
Pakistan’s Strategic Options
Rebuild Stability and Predictability in Trade Policy
Pakistan must prioritise smooth border operations, transparent customs procedures, and consistent policy frameworks. Predictability will determine Afghanistan’s trust, not geography.
Offer Kabul Stronger Regional Connectivity
Pakistan can leverage CPEC and Central Asian energy projects to provide benefits that India cannot match. However, this requires serious planning and clear communication.
Prioritise Diplomacy Over Reaction
Calm, structured, continuous diplomatic engagement is essential. Emotional decision-making accelerates Afghanistan’s shift toward India and weakens both economies.
Compete with Strategy, Not Emotion
India’s approach in Afghanistan is patient and methodical. Pakistan must respond with a similarly thoughtful strategy rooted in economic strength and long-term planning.
Conclusion
A Regional Reality Pakistan Must Confront
Afghanistan’s tilt toward India is one of the most important geopolitical developments in South Asia. The consequences for Pakistan, especially economic ones, are becoming visible. Old assumptions are fading, and new realities are emerging.
Pakistan must adapt through consistent diplomacy, smart engagement, and long-term regional strategy. If handled wisely, Pakistan can still remain central to Afghanistan’s economic and political future. If ignored, Pakistan risks losing markets, influence, and strategic depth in a region where it once held a decisive advantage.
